Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.211085 0.245928 0.284098 0.328929 0.380052 0.436442 0.503260
2025-11-23 0.146287 0.191843 0.247123 0.318728 0.408567 0.517056 0.657434
2025-11-30 0.121513 0.173822 0.242192 0.337163 0.464566 0.628320 0.853248
2025-12-07 0.096038 0.148178 0.220842 0.327962 0.479972 0.685720 0.982503
2025-12-14 0.077356 0.127760 0.202140 0.317692 0.489896 0.733598 1.100121
2025-12-21 0.063944 0.112415 0.187767 0.310495 0.501556 0.782795 1.221539
2025-12-28 0.056047 0.104208 0.182634 0.315807 0.531193 0.859240 1.387375
2026-01-04 0.050618 0.099085 0.181422 0.326612 0.569619 0.951154 1.582771
2026-01-11 0.045354 0.093305 0.178149 0.333234 0.601348 1.034490 1.770451
2026-01-18 0.040338 0.087110 0.173197 0.336097 0.626573 1.108734 1.948377
2026-01-25 0.035710 0.080868 0.167236 0.336227 0.646652 1.175417 2.117958
2026-02-01 0.031325 0.074366 0.159870 0.332751 0.659652 1.230604 2.271500
2026-02-08 0.027306 0.068056 0.152218 0.328158 0.670716 1.284253 2.428221
2026-02-15 0.023168 0.060769 0.141641 0.316647 0.667793 1.313096 2.544140
2026-02-22 0.022195 0.060562 0.145694 0.334852 0.723161 1.450758 2.862892
2026-03-01 0.019131 0.054803 0.137032 0.325698 0.723841 1.487497 3.000484
2026-03-08 0.016430 0.049416 0.128405 0.315491 0.721175 1.517298 3.126621
2026-03-15 0.014300 0.045092 0.121580 0.308339 0.723917 1.557293 3.274113
2026-03-22 0.013159 0.043236 0.120350 0.313618 0.753270 1.651282 3.531134
2026-03-29 0.012420 0.042377 0.121440 0.324356 0.795263 1.773186 3.850002
2026-04-05 0.011534 0.040920 0.120821 0.330936 0.828569 1.879519 4.144164
2026-04-12 0.010563 0.039014 0.118772 0.333781 0.853631 1.970336 4.412268
2026-04-19 0.009580 0.036871 0.115784 0.333910 0.872360 2.048879 4.659577